Standard Chartered forecasts Vietnam’s GDP to grow 8.7% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2026 in its latest report, up slightly from 8.4% in the second quarter, supported by industrial production, trade and domestic demand, although external uncertainties remain.

Exports are estimated to increase 27.2% year-on-year in Q3. (Photo: VNA)

September economic indicators are expected to reflect continued improvements in manufacturing and trade. Industrial production is forecast to rise 13.2% year-on-year, while trade activity is expected to remain positive throughout the quarter.

Exports are estimated to increase 27.2% year-on-year in Q3, while imports are projected to rise more strongly, by 40%.

The figures indicate continued expansion in trade, and also reflect strong demand for imported inputs serving domestic production and economic activity.

The bank forecasts September inflation at 4.5% year-on-year, remaining around the Government’s inflation-control target.

Based on current economic developments, Standard Chartered expects growth momentum to continue in the final months of the year, with GDP in the second half of 2026 projected to expand 10.6% year-on-year. It also maintained its full-year 2026 GDP growth forecast at 9.5%.

Tim Leelahaphan, Standard Chartered’s Senior Economist for Thailand and Vietnam, said: "Vietnam continues to demonstrate strong economic resilience, underpinned by robust domestic demand, expanding industrial production and dynamic trade activity. We expect growth momentum to remain solid through the remainder of the year. While external uncertainties remain, continued policy support and sustained economic activity are expected to support Vietnam's growth outlook through year-end.”

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